diagnostikon

Trades mispricings in weather temperature-bin markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and date, detectin...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on scientific breakthroughs, Nobel Prizes, physics discoveries, and research milestones. Corrects for systematic retail...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on social trend indicators: loneliness indices, mental health policy, drug legalization, and cultural inflection points....

Trades 2nd and 3rd order effects from nearly-resolved Polymarket events. When a major geopolitical, crypto, or weather event resolves, downstream markets (oi...

Trades the lag between geopolitical escalation markets and crypto price threshold markets on Polymarket. When Iran military action probability rises, BTC thr...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets that resolve near known calendar catalyst events (FOMC meetings, major tournament finals, geopolitical summits, crypto h...

Trades monotonicity violations in NHL hockey O/U market ladders and spread-vs-total consistency on Polymarket. Each game spawns multiple O/U lines that must...

Trades F1 Drivers Championship markets on Kalshi by identifying mathematically eliminated drivers still priced above zero. Sells NO on eliminated drivers for...

Trades altcoin (ETH/SOL/XRP) Up/Down markets based on BTC weekend price threshold momentum drift. BTC leads altcoins by 6-24 hours on weekends because altcoi...

Trades commodity markets based on extreme weather signals. When temperature markets show unusual readings (extreme heat or cold), it signals potential energy...

Detects macro sentiment divergence across Polymarket prediction markets. When positive-sentiment categories (sports winners, tech milestones, entertainment,...

Three-step macro chain reaction trader for Polymarket. Chains commodity pressure (oil, WTI, crude) through inflation and rate expectations (Fed, FOMC) to equ...

Trades CPI bin markets on Kalshi using the Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast to compute fair bin probabilities via a normal distribution model. Requires SIMMER_API_K...

Trades Polymarket YouTube channel markets (subscriber milestones, view-count races). Requires SIMMER_API_KEY for trade execution via simmer-sdk. Paper tradin...

Trades CS2 BO3 Winner markets when individual map winner probabilities imply a different BO3 outcome on Polymarket. Uses the binomial BO3 model to calculate...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on housing prices, mortgage rates, Fed rate decisions, real estate crash scenarios, and regional property market milesto...

Trades crypto hourly Up/Down markets when sub-interval consensus disagrees with the hourly price on Polymarket. BTC/ETH/SOL 5-min interval markets within the...

Fades strong directional crypto moves on Polymarket 5-minute interval markets. After 3+ consecutive high-conviction same-direction intervals (>58% probabilit...

Trades BTC "Up or Down" 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket by detecting streaks of 3+ consecutive same-direction intervals and trading mean-reversion on...

Trades Polymarket coffee markets using three compounding seasonal edges unique to the global coffee market — Brazil frost window mispricing, harvest cycle aw...

Systematically trades against longshot bias by selling overpriced low-probability outcomes (buy NO ≤10%) and buying underpriced near-certainties (buy YES ≥88...

Detects engulfing reversal patterns in crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket. A bullish engulfing occurs when an interval completely reverses the pr...

Detects cross-asset divergence in Polymarket crypto 5-minute interval markets. When normally correlated assets like BTC and ETH show contradictory candle dir...

Weights copytrading by portfolio concentration -- a whale committing 30% of capital to one market signals far more conviction than 2% spread across many. Cop...

Detects doji patterns (48-52% probability) in crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket and trades the post-doji breakout in the direction of the pre-do...

Trades monotonicity violations in esports Total Kills O/U market ladders on Polymarket. Each esports match spawns multiple kill total thresholds that must be...

Exploits temporal monotonicity violations in Fed rate markets on Kalshi. P(rate cut by June) >= P(rate cut by April) always -- if April is priced higher than...

Trades crypto "Up or Down" 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket by detecting Morning Star (DOWN-doji-UP bottom reversal) and Evening Star (UP-doji-DOWN to...

Trades marubozu continuation signals on Polymarket 5-minute crypto interval markets. A marubozu is an interval with extreme conviction (>65% or <35%) indicat...

Trades NBA player prop mispricings on Polymarket by detecting cross-stat consistency or divergence for the same player (Points, Rebounds, Assists O/U) and id...

Trades gap-fill reversions on Polymarket 5-minute crypto interval markets. When consecutive intervals have contradictory strong signals -- prior interval res...

Scans all Polymarket categories for tight spreads (<= 8%) combined with extreme probabilities (<= 15% or >= 85%), placing many tiny conviction-based micro be...

Cross-coin volume spike detection for crypto Up or Down markets on Polymarket. When 3+ coins (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) simultaneously show strong same-direction c...

Systematically finds markets with huge asymmetric payoff -- markets priced at 2-10% where cross-category macro analysis suggests the REAL probability is 15-3...

Trades structural arbitrage between Overwatch BO3 series winner markets and individual game winner markets on Polymarket. P(BO3 winner) must be mathematicall...

Trades tempo inconsistencies across Dota2 and esports game props on Polymarket. Within the same game first blood timing correlates with kill pace and Ends in...

Trades crypto "Up or Down" 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket by detecting Three White Soldiers (3+ consecutive strong UP intervals all p>0.57) and Thre...

Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting...

Trades structural mispricings in sports over/under markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across multiple O/U line values for the same game...

Trades Polymarket weather temperature markets using NOAA and Open-Meteo forecasts as an information edge. Buys YES on bins matching the forecast at discount...

Trades Fed rate markets on Kalshi based on hawkish/dovish sentiment signals from market question text. Scores net sentiment from keyword dictionaries and adj...

Compares CME FedWatch implied rate probabilities to Kalshi Fed rate decision market prices and trades when divergence exceeds threshold. Requires SIMMER_API_...

Trades Fed rate markets on Kalshi using FOMC dot plot median implied rate path. Computes fair probability of cut/hike per meeting and trades when market dive...

Trades Fed rate markets on Kalshi based on macro data releases (CPI, jobs). Scans CPI bin markets for implied CPI, adjusts rate cut probabilities using data...

Trades F1 Drivers Championship winner markets on Kalshi using current points standings and Monte Carlo simulation to compute win probabilities. Requires SIMM...

Trades F1 Drivers Championship markets on Kalshi using constructor (team) car performance ratings. Drivers in faster cars have structurally higher championsh...

Trades structural mispricings in equity/stock price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across strike levels for the same compa...

Trades bundle inconsistencies across correlated Dota 2 match props on Polymarket. A single match spawns 28+ prop markets (kills O/U, roshan, barracks, rampag...

Trades structural inconsistencies between Dota 2 BO3 winner, individual game winners, and game handicap markets on Polymarket. P(BO3 win) must equal f(P(Game...

Trades cross-coin divergence in 5-minute crypto Up/Down bundles on Polymarket. BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP move together in practice -- when one coin diverges fro...

Detects when top whale wallets start taking profits by reducing winning positions, then identifies what markets they rotate INTO. Follows the smart money flo...

Identifies which whale wallet consistently enters markets first before others follow. Copies the lead indicator whale's fresh positions before the herd pushe...

Automatically discovers and ranks top Polymarket wallets from public leaderboards, evaluates rolling performance, and builds a dynamic copy roster. Feeds qua...

Only trades Polymarket markets where 3+ top whale wallets independently agree on direction. Filters out noisy single-wallet signals and focuses on high-convi...

Tracks rolling win rate per whale wallet and only follows wallets on a verified hot streak. Dynamically promotes and demotes wallets based on recent performa...

Trades distribution-sum violations in social media post-count range markets on Polymarket. Range bins for the same person and date range must sum to ~100% —...

Scans public Polymarket leaderboards to identify top-performing whale wallets by SmartScore, then trades markets where these whales have high-conviction posi...

Detects when multiple top-performing whale wallets independently enter the same Polymarket market in the same direction within a configurable time window. Wh...

Detects when multiple whale wallets exit positions simultaneously, causing market overshooting. Fades the panic by buying the dip after whale dumps, exploiti...

Detects smart money divergence where top-performing whale wallets take positions opposite to retail consensus. When markets are at probability extremes but w...

Detects doji patterns (48-52% probability) in crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket and trades the post-doji breakout in the direction of the pre-do...

Enforces monotonicity constraints on crypto price-level markets on Kalshi. P(BTC > $110k) must always >= P(BTC > $120k). Trades violations by buying underpri...

Trades CPI/inflation markets on Kalshi using documented seasonal patterns in CPI data. Energy costs spike summer, housing adjustments January. Requires SIMME...

Trades CPI bin markets on Kalshi accounting for systematic upward revision bias (~0.03 pp) in initial CPI releases. Markets pricing off initial releases unde...

Cross-market strategy that uses CPI bin prices to estimate CPI level, then adjusts Fed rate market positions via a sensitivity model. High CPI means Fed less...

Trades CPI range bin markets on Kalshi using the constraint that mutually exclusive bins must sum to ~100%. Normalizes and trades the most mispriced bin when...

Trades session-transition mean-reversion in 5-minute crypto "Up or Down" markets on Polymarket, fading directional bursts that occur during US, Asia, and Eur...

Trades cluster momentum continuation in 5-minute crypto Up/Down bundles on Polymarket. When 2+ coins (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) all show the same directional bias...

Micro-trades altcoin 5-min Up/Down markets when BTC leads with strong directional bias and ETH/SOL/XRP haven't caught up yet.

Trades mean-reversion on crypto 5-minute interval markets after detecting a single extreme probability pulse (p > 70% or p < 30%) on Polymarket.

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi by exploiting the 1.3x beta relationship between ETH and BTC. When BTC odds shift, ETH markets lag behind -- this skill ca...

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using the post-merge deflation thesis. ETH burns ~0.5% of supply annually via EIP-1559, creating structural upward pressur...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on weather extremes, climate milestones, natural disasters, and agricultural outcomes. Use when you want to capture alph...

Trades post-count bin markets by tracking elapsed time to identify mathematically dead bins that still hold residual probability. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets focused on Scandinavian and Nordic events — Swedish politics, Norwegian economy, Danish infrastructure, Nordic business...

Trades cross-market constraint violations in tennis Set 1 Games O/U, Match Games O/U, Total Sets O/U, Set Handicap, and Set/Match Winner bundles on Polymarke...

Detects crisis and news spikes across other Polymarket markets and adjusts expected posting rates upward for post-count bins. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and sim...

Trades post-count bin markets by detecting cross-person contagion where one public figure posting heavily causes correlated figures to increase their rate. R...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on AI model releases, tech IPOs, product launches, GPU infrastructure milestones, and AI regulation events. Use when you...

Trades F1 Drivers Championship markets on Kalshi using teammate anti-correlation. Teammates share the same car so their probabilities are structurally linked...

Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting...

Trades logical inconsistencies in geopolitical event clusters on Polymarket. Geopolitical markets form clusters where probabilities must satisfy constraints...

Trades mispricings in weather temperature-bin markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and date, detectin...

Trades post-count bin markets using a Poisson statistical model to predict the most likely bins based on historical posting rates. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY an...

Trades Polymarket markets by detecting logical inconsistencies between related contracts such as earlier-vs-later deadlines and prerequisite-vs-downstream ev...

Trades logical inconsistencies in geopolitical event clusters on Polymarket. Geopolitical markets form clusters where probabilities must satisfy constraints...

Trades distribution-sum violations in F1 championship winner markets on Polymarket. Driver winner probabilities form a distribution that must sum to ~100% —...

Trades distribution-sum violations in chess tournament winner markets on Polymarket. Player winner probabilities must sum to ~100% — when the field total dev...

Trades BTC weekend price threshold markets on Polymarket by exploiting the systematic gap between first-passage probability ("will BTC touch 150k at ANY POIN...

Multi-timeframe analysis for crypto Up or Down markets on Polymarket. Detects when 5-minute candle consensus diverges from the hourly market and trades conve...

Trades Bitcoin price bin markets on Kalshi by comparing market-implied volatility to BTC historical ~60% annualized vol using a lognormal model. Requires SIM...

Uses 7-day and 30-day price trend extrapolation to trade crypto year-end price target markets on Kalshi. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

Trades Bitcoin year-end price markets on Kalshi using the 4-year halving cycle pattern to compute fair price probabilities. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simme...

Exploits BTC/ETH correlation (beta=1.3) to trade ETH price-level markets when BTC makes a significant move. ETH tends to lag BTC moves, creating mispricing w...

Detects harami (inside bar) candlestick patterns on Polymarket crypto 5-minute interval markets. A harami forms when a small-range interval (near 50%) appear...

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using the 4% staking yield as a fundamental price floor. When markets underprice ETH relative to the yield-implied floor,...

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using on-chain gas prices as a bullish/bearish signal. High gas = strong demand = bullish for ETH. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY...

Trades weekly cyclical patterns in geopolitical prediction markets. Military operations spike Mon-Thu, diplomacy clusters around working days, and weekend st...

Trades F1 Drivers Championship markets on Kalshi using recent race results weighted by recency. Hot streaks boost championship probability, cold streaks redu...

Trades structural mispricings in sports over/under markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across multiple O/U line values for the same game...

Trades temporal inconsistencies across geopolitical markets with different deadlines. When P(event by later date) < P(event by earlier date), the later-deadl...

Trades mean reversion on geopolitical markets pushed to probability extremes by breaking news. Markets at >92% or <8% with long time horizons systematically...

Detects macro risk regimes (risk-on vs risk-off) by scanning ALL Polymarket categories simultaneously. When crypto drops, geopolitical escalation rises, and...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on hurricane seasons, earthquake probabilities, wildfire forecasts, and extreme weather records. Exploits two structural...

Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels an...

Trades NBA player prop mispricings on Polymarket by detecting cross-stat consistency or divergence for the same player (Points, Rebounds, Assists O/U) and id...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on major cyberattacks, ransomware incidents, data breaches, zero-day exploits, and national cybersecurity legislation. E...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on stock index milestones, major IPOs, earnings surprises, analyst upgrades, and company-specific financial events. Expl...

Trades esports tournament, game release, and streaming milestone prediction markets on Polymarket. Exploits three stacked edges — game data richness (HLTV El...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on elections, referendums, and democratic events worldwide. Exploits two structural edges — electoral system type predic...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on food commodity prices, crop yields, drought-driven supply shocks, alternative protein milestones, and agricultural po...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on FDA drug approvals, biotech IPOs, clinical trial outcomes, pharma M&A, and precision medicine milestones. Use when yo...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on music streaming milestones, album chart performance, Grammy nominations, concert tour revenues, and music industry de...

Trades cross-asset correlation divergences in 5-minute crypto "Up or Down" markets on Polymarket. When BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, XRP, and BNB have overlapping tim...

Trades structural inconsistencies across correlated NBA game markets on Polymarket by grouping moneyline, spread, O/U (full-game and 1H), and 1H moneyline ma...

Trades structural inconsistencies across correlated NBA game markets on Polymarket by grouping moneyline, spread, O/U (full-game and 1H), and 1H moneyline ma...

Trades structural mispricings in equity/stock price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across strike levels for the same compa...

Trades cross-asset correlation divergences in 5-minute crypto "Up or Down" markets on Polymarket. When BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, XRP, and BNB have overlapping tim...

Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels an...

Trades Polymarket markets on OnlyFans using three structural edges — celebrity pipeline base-rate mispricing (retail ignores demographic base rates for who j...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana price milestones, ETF inflows, halving events, and DeFi protocol milestones. Uses three sta...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on EV adoption milestones, solar/wind capacity, nuclear energy restarts, oil price thresholds, and energy policy events....

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on geopolitical events — wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomatic breakthroughs, and regime changes. Use when you want to...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on landmark court cases, antitrust rulings, SEC enforcement actions, EU regulatory decisions, and DOJ investigations. Us...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on sports championships, tournament outcomes, MVP awards, transfer windows, and season milestones. Use when you want to...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on Web3/DeFi milestones, NFT market recovery, metaverse adoption, humanoid robotics deployments, quantum computing break...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on space launches, SpaceX milestones, satellite deployments, Mars missions, and commercial spaceflight outcomes. Use whe...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets focused on supply chain disruptions, port congestion, shipping delays, commodity prices, and logistics outcomes. Use whe...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on celebrity events, viral social media moments, Elon Musk tweet counts, influencer milestones, and reality TV outcomes....

Builds a custom fear index from ALL Polymarket markets by aggregating geopolitical escalation, falling crypto, extreme weather, and rising disease signals in...