polymarket-longshot-bias-traderSystematically trades against longshot bias by selling overpriced low-probability outcomes (buy NO ≤10%) and buying underpriced near-certainties (buy YES ≥88...
Install via ClawdBot CLI:
clawdbot install diagnostikon/polymarket-longshot-bias-traderGrade Fair — based on market validation, documentation quality, package completeness, maintenance status, and authenticity signals.
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https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/Audited Apr 17, 2026 · audit v1.0
Generated May 21, 2026
Fade overpriced longshot election outcomes (e.g., a 8% chance candidate wins) by buying NO, and back near-certainties (e.g., an incumbent at 90%) by buying YES. The bias is strongest in high-narrative races like presidential primaries or congressional seats.
Exploit longshot bias in sports markets such as soccer, NFL, or NBA. For example, a team at $6% to win the championship is likely overpriced; buy NO. A heavy favorite at 91% is underpriced; buy YES.
Trade on crypto-specific prediction markets (e.g., 'Bitcoin above $100k by June'). Longshots like 6% chance of a specific altcoin reaching a target are overpriced; fad by buying NO. High-probability events like Fed rate cuts at 90% are underpriced; buy YES.
Profit from mispricing in corporate event markets (e.g., the probability of an IPO, acquisition, or FDA approval). A 5% chance of a merger is likely inflated; buy NO. A 92% chance of earnings beat is likely undervalued; buy YES.
Operate a fund that systematically executes the longshot bias trading strategy across multiple prediction markets. Revenue comes from capturing the spread between market prices and true probabilities, with returns enhanced by conviction-based sizing.
Offer the signal logic as a subscription service to retail traders or hedge funds. Provide API access to trade recommendations, market discovery, and sizing calculations.
White-label the strategy to prediction market platforms themselves, helping them identify and correct mispricing to reduce longshot bias, improving market efficiency and user trust.
💬 Integration Tip
Ensure your agent has access to real-time price feeds and order book data for prediction markets. No external APIs are required for the default signal, but higher-quality narrative salience detection can be added via news APIs to enhance conviction multipliers.
Scored May 21, 2026
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财务分析 CLI 技能 - 财报分析、股票估值、风险评估