Polymarket Global Elections Traderv0.0.3

The agent monitors Polymarket for German election markets, such as 'Will CDU win the general election?'. It applies a 1.20x multiplier for FPTP-style wins and a 1.20x regional lag multiplier for Germany, exploiting daily updates from Wahlrecht.de that retail traders miss. This allows the agent to capitalize on price discrepancies within 12-36 hours of polling shifts.

The agent targets Brazilian runoff election markets on Polymarket, applying a 1.15x multiplier for runoff accuracy and a 1.15x regional lag multiplier for Latin America. It leverages daily tracking polls from DataFolha or Quaest in Portuguese, which are not widely read by English-speaking traders, to identify mispricings before market corrections.

The agent analyzes UK election markets like 'Will Labour win a majority?', using a 1.20x multiplier for FPTP systems and a 1.05x regional multiplier for English-speaking regions. It exploits underweighted Electoral Calculus MRP models compared to US-centric retail assumptions, enabling trades based on structural seat translation edges rather than raw poll margins.

The agent identifies markets in proportional representation systems, such as 'Will SPD win a majority in the Bundestag?', applying a 0.70x multiplier for PR majority impossibility and a 1.20x regional lag multiplier. It capitalizes on retail overpricing due to misprojection of US two-party dynamics, taking skeptical positions unless a party polls above 45%, which is rare in mature PR democracies.

The agent handles snap election markets, applying a 0.85x multiplier due to high volatility and lack of steady polling baselines. It avoids overexposure by sizing down trades, focusing on markets with clear resolution criteria and sufficient time to resolution, while monitoring for sudden political developments that could impact prices.

The agent acts as a liquidity provider on Polymarket by placing limit orders based on election bias calculations, earning spreads from mispriced markets. It exploits structural edges like regional information lag to offer competitive prices before retail traders adjust, generating revenue from bid-ask spreads and transaction volume.

The agent monetizes by selling insights or signals derived from non-English polling aggregators like Wahlrecht.de or DataFolha to other traders or funds. It packages real-time analysis of lagged data into subscription-based reports or API access, targeting clients seeking an edge in global election markets.

The agent operates within a dedicated fund that pools capital to trade election markets on Polymarket, using the skill's strategy to generate alpha. Investors are charged a performance fee based on profits, leveraging the agent's automated execution and risk safeguards to scale trading across multiple global elections simultaneously.