Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Traderv0.0.3

Continuously monitor Polymarket precipitation markets for sum deviations and monotonicity breaks. When a violation is detected above the tolerance threshold, execute trades to profit from the mispricing, using the skill's built-in risk controls and position sizing.

Use historical Polymarket data to replay past precipitation markets. Identify which violations were profitable and refine trading parameters (tolerance, thresholds) to optimize returns before going live.

Incorporate real-time weather forecasts or historical precipitation data to predict which bins are likely mispriced. Combine the skill's distribution checking with external data to get early signals on potential violations before retail adjusts.

Run the skill across several cities simultaneously (e.g., Seattle, Miami, Chicago) to diversify exposure. Use correlation between precipitation events to hedge positions, reducing risk while capturing arbitrage opportunities.

Use the skill in paper-trading mode to teach users about prediction market inefficiencies and probability axioms. It can serve as a live demonstration of arbitrage in a controlled environment without financial risk.

Deploy the skill to execute trades on Polymarket using personal capital. Profit from identified mispricings by buying underpriced bins and selling overpriced ones, aiming for consistent returns with minimal risk.

Provide the trade signals (violation alerts) as a subscription service to other traders or funds. Users receive real-time notifications when the skill detects a profitable opportunity, and they can execute trades on their own.

Pool capital from investors into a fund managed by the skill. Charge management fees and take a percentage of profits (e.g., 2 and 20) while using the skill to automate trading decisions across multiple markets.