Weather Traderv1.16.0

A trader scans active Polymarket markets for temperature outcomes, compares NOAA/Open-Meteo forecasts with market prices, and executes trades when positive EV is detected with Kelly sizing. Useful for systematic weather betting using ensemble forecasts.

Using the maker/taker arbiter, the agent dynamically switches between providing liquidity and taking trades based on spread and volatility conditions. This enables efficient market making on temperature-based binary events.

Open positions are monitored and if the market moves against the forecast, a Bayesian update adjusts the win probability. Positions are closed when probability drops below threshold, preserving capital.

Configure a list of cities (16 US + 20+ international) and run scans across all active weather markets simultaneously. The agent fetches location-specific forecasts and trades only those with positive EV.

Use smart sizing to allocate a percentage of total balance per trade, enforce max trades per run, and automatically halt trading if performance degrades. The circuit breaker can be manually reset with --resume.

Offer a SaaS platform where subscribers receive automated weather trade signals generated by the EV/Kelly framework. Revenue from monthly or yearly subscriptions.

License the weather trader package to institutional or retail traders who run it on their own infrastructure. Revenue from one-time license fees plus optional maintenance contracts.

Operate a pooled fund where the system trades with collective capital, charging a management fee and taking a percentage of profits. Suitable for high-net-worth individuals seeking exposure to prediction markets.