polymarket-traderBuild and analyze a BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategy anchored to Binance BTCUSDT, applying edge thresholds, regime filters, and detailed trade validation.
Install via ClawdBot CLI:
clawdbot install drakec48/polymarket-traderMaintain a profitable BTC 1h Up/Down strategy by anchoring decisions to Binance BTCUSDT (the resolution source) and enforcing anti-churn/risk rules.
1) Confirm the market type
bitcoin-up-or-down-* 1h markets (Binance 1H open vs close).2) Compute the anchor signal (Binance)
3) Trade only when there is measurable edge
edge = fair_prob - market_price exceeds a threshold.4) Exit using the right logic for the entry mode
5) Validate with logs
reason / entry_modeAll scripts are designed to be run from the OpenClaw workspace.
{baseDir}/scripts/binance_klines.py{baseDir}/scripts/binance_regime.py{baseDir}/scripts/explain_fills.pyevents.jsonl and prints a concise table for the last N fills:{baseDir}/references/strategy.md — the math model, parameters, and tuning checklist.Generated Mar 1, 2026
A quantitative trading firm uses this skill to develop a fair probability model for Bitcoin 1-hour up/down markets on Polymarket, comparing it against market prices to identify profitable trading edges based on Binance data.
A hedge fund integrates this skill to apply regime filters (trend vs. range) to their Polymarket trading strategies, optimizing entries and exits by adapting to market conditions derived from Binance volatility and time-to-expiry metrics.
A crypto trading desk employs this skill to analyze events.jsonl and state.json logs, identifying and correcting suboptimal trades by examining fair probability, z-scores, and exit logic to improve strategy performance.
A financial research team uses the bundled scripts to conduct quick offline analyses and parameter sweeps, testing different thresholds and rules without live trading to refine their Polymarket strategies efficiently.
An algorithmic trading firm leverages this skill to validate every trade by cross-referencing logs with Binance-derived data, ensuring each decision aligns with the model's edge and exit rules to maintain profitability.
Firms use this skill to develop and execute proprietary trading strategies on Polymarket, generating revenue from arbitrage opportunities and edge-based trades in BTC up/down markets, leveraging Binance as the anchor source.
Companies offer this skill as part of a service to clients, providing analysis, model tuning, and strategy optimization for Polymarket trading, with revenue from subscription fees or performance-based commissions.
Educational platforms integrate this skill into courses or tools, teaching users how to design and debug trading strategies on prediction markets, with revenue from course sales, memberships, or software licensing.
đź’¬ Integration Tip
Ensure Binance API access is configured for real-time data fetching, and regularly update the bundled scripts to align with market changes for accurate edge calculations.
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