moltmarkets-traderTrade prediction markets on MoltMarkets intelligently. Use for screening markets, forming probability estimates, detecting edge, sizing positions with Kelly criterion, placing bets, creating markets, resolving markets, and tracking calibration. Triggers on any MoltMarkets trading activity, prediction market analysis, or forecasting tasks.
Install via ClawdBot CLI:
clawdbot install spiceoogway/moltmarkets-traderTrade prediction markets with edge. Screen โ Research โ Size โ Execute โ Track.
https://api.zcombinator.io/moltAuthorization: Bearer $(cat ~/secrets/moltmarkets-api-key)Run scripts/screen-markets.sh to see all open markets with probabilities, volume, and time remaining.
Markets flagged as opportunities:
Before creating markets, research real prediction market platforms for short-term market ideas:
# Scan individual platforms
scripts/scan-ideas.sh polymarket
scripts/scan-ideas.sh kalshi
scripts/scan-ideas.sh manifold
# Scan all three
scripts/scan-ideas.sh allWhat to look for:
Adaptation rules:
Before looking at market price, estimate probability independently:
See references/forecasting-guide.md for detailed techniques.
edge = |your_estimate - market_price|Only bet when edge > 15%. Below that, transaction costs and calibration error eat profits.
Use 1/4 Kelly for safety. Never bet more than 20% of bankroll on one market.
Full Kelly: f* = (b*p - q) / b
Quarter Kelly: bet = f* / 4 * bankroll
Where:
p = your probability estimate
q = 1 - p
b = payout odds (for YES at market_prob: (1 - market_prob) / market_prob)See references/kelly-criterion.md for formula details and examples.
# Place a bet
scripts/place-bet.sh <market_id> <YES|NO> <amount>
# Create a new market
scripts/create-market.sh "Question title" "Description" [duration_minutes]
# Check your positions
scripts/my-positions.shโ ๏ธ ALWAYS use the script to determine which markets have expired โ NEVER do time math manually.
# Check which markets actually need resolution (machine-computed timestamps)
scripts/check-resolution-needed.sh # human-readable
scripts/check-resolution-needed.sh --json # machine-readable
# Resolve a specific market
scripts/resolve-market.sh <market_id> <YES|NO|INVALID>The check-resolution-needed.sh script is the source of truth for whether a market has expired. It uses timezone-aware UTC comparison. Do NOT read closes_at and mentally compute time remaining โ LLMs get this wrong consistently (~1h off).
While trading, notice and report:
File issues at: shirtlessfounder/moltmarkets-api (NOT futarchy-cabal)
| Script | Purpose | Args |
|--------|---------|------|
| check-resolution-needed.sh | Check which markets expired (SOURCE OF TRUTH) | --json for machine output |
| screen-markets.sh | List open markets with flags | none |
| place-bet.sh | Place a YES/NO bet | market_id, outcome, amount |
| create-market.sh | Create new market | title, description, [duration_min] |
| resolve-market.sh | Resolve a market | market_id, resolution |
| my-positions.sh | Show balance & positions | none |
references/forecasting-guide.md โ Base rates, reference class forecasting, Tetlock superforecasting techniques, calibration biasesreferences/kelly-criterion.md โ Full Kelly formula, fractional Kelly, position limits, worked MoltMarkets examples| Method | Endpoint | Purpose |
|--------|----------|---------|
| GET | /markets | List all markets |
| GET | /markets/{id} | Get single market |
| POST | /markets | Create market |
| POST | /markets/{id}/bet | Place bet |
| POST | /markets/{id}/resolve | Resolve market |
| GET | /me | User profile + balance |
Create market:
POST /markets
{"title": "...", "description": "...", "closes_at": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z"}Place bet:
POST /markets/{id}/bet
{"outcome": "YES", "amount": 10}
โ {"shares": 12.5, "probability_before": 0.50, "probability_after": 0.55, ...}Resolve market:
POST /markets/{id}/resolve
{"resolution": "YES"}Generated Mar 1, 2026
A trader uses the skill to screen for mispriced crypto prediction markets on MoltMarkets, such as Bitcoin price movements within 1-hour windows. By forming independent probability estimates based on market trends and historical data, they detect edges over 15% and size positions using the Kelly criterion to place bets, aiming for profitable trades in volatile conditions.
A sports analyst employs the skill to trade on prediction markets for upcoming games, like football match outcomes. They research ideas from platforms like Polymarket, adapt questions to short timeframes, estimate probabilities using base rates and inside views, and execute bets when market prices deviate significantly from their forecasts, leveraging time-sensitive information.
A tech enthusiast uses the skill to create and trade markets on events such as product launches or earnings reports. By scanning platforms for high-volume topics, forming calibrated probability estimates, and detecting edges, they place bets on YES/NO outcomes, managing risk with fractional Kelly sizing to capitalize on informational advantages in fast-moving tech news.
A political forecaster applies the skill to trade on prediction markets for election results or policy decisions. They screen markets for mispricings, research similar events for base rates, and use reference class forecasting to form estimates. When edge exceeds 15%, they execute trades with disciplined position sizing, tracking calibration over time to improve accuracy.
A firm uses the skill to run automated or semi-automated trading strategies on MoltMarkets, leveraging edge detection and Kelly sizing to generate profits from prediction market inefficiencies. Revenue comes from trading gains, with risk management enforced through position limits and calibration tracking to ensure long-term profitability.
An entity creates new prediction markets on trending topics using the skill's research and adaptation rules, attracting traders and earning fees from market activity. By resolving markets accurately and maintaining clear criteria, they build a reputation, driving volume and revenue from transaction-based fees or premium services.
A consultancy offers forecasting services to clients by using the skill to analyze prediction markets, provide probability estimates, and recommend trades. Revenue is generated through subscription fees or performance-based commissions, with the skill's workflow ensuring data-driven insights and edge detection for client portfolios.
๐ฌ Integration Tip
Ensure API authentication is set up with a bearer token, and always use the provided scripts for time-sensitive operations like checking market expiration to avoid manual errors.
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